Understanding the process of depopulation with the data

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About the project

The Infostud group has been following the analytics and trends in advertising on the Poslovi.infostud.com and Startuj.infostud.com (website Najstudent.com, rebranded in 2021) websites for many years. By analyzing the data collected in the period from 2013 to 2020, we tried to contribute to the understanding of the process of depopulation of the working age population of Republic of Serbia. Below, you can read the results of the project made within the “Depopulation data challenge”, in which the project of the InfostudData team was declared as one of the winners. The project was implemented with the financial support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Serbia, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).

Our focus was on job postings abroad. We analyzed the candidates’ interest in reviewing and applying for foreign jobs through our portal. In the process of data analysis, we first carried out the exploratory data analysis (EDA), and then linear regression (ML) and basic text analysis of foreign job postings. In addition to the analysis of data from the Poslovi.infostud.com portal, the exploratory analysis (EDA) was also performed on data from the Startuj.infostud.com (Najstudent.com) database, as a relevant representative sample of the younger part of the educated population.

In order to validate the obtained results, we also analyzed data available from other sources. The first validation is related to the internal database, which contains data collected through a special survey on the Poslovi.infostud.com website (hereinafter TK database), within which the candidates have stated whether they want to continue their life abroad for many years. The second validation refers to the analysis of data from the 2011 census, which was conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

Before you read the report in detail, it is important to note that all the conclusions we have reached reflect the intention of a certain part of the population to continue living abroad. As we do not know who did get a job abroad, we cannot say with certainty that applying for jobs abroad represents guaranteed emigration. Although the data we obtained depict a clear intention of the mentioned population to find a job in one of the foreign countries, we would like to distance ourselves from the conclusions related to the process of leaving the country. The results obtained in this research serve exclusively for research purposes, as a supplement to clarifying the problem that is the subject of the research.

Also, we will subsequently supplement this page with the results of a survey, which we will conduct on Poslovi.infostud.com and Startuj.infostud.com (Najstudent.com) websites. Our goal is to question our visitors about their intention and motivation to go abroad.

Note: Monthly data updates will be available on external links, while on main page will be presented initial results.

Exploratory Data Analysis involves the analysis of data sets in order to gain insight into their main characteristics (e.g. distribution of numerical variables, detection of extreme values, etc.). Below, you can see exploratory analyses of some of the variables we analyzed.

Note (valid for all analyses): data for 2020 refer only to the first half of the year.

Offer: ads for jobs abroad throughout the years

Over the years, there was a continuous increase in ads published for jobs abroad, and the largest number of them was published in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, there was a noticeable decline, probably as a consequence of the world facing a global economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Graph: number of ads (sum) for jobs abroad, by years

Offer: which categories ads for jobs abroad belong to

The job category implies the field of work which includes several related job positions. For the purposes of the present research, we have selected 10 areas of work that are most frequently advertised on our portal. We can see that the largest number of ads was in the field of mechanical engineering, civil engineering, geodesy and IT. Electrical engineering, hospitality, food preparation, healthcare and transport also stood out.

Graph: number of ads (sum) by job categories, from 2013 to 2020

Offer: which positions are most often found in job ads abroad

When we look at individual positions, there was the greatest demand for drivers and cooks. This was followed by civil engineers, waiters, mechanical engineers, electricians, doctors and nurses.

Graph: number of ads (sum) by job positions abroad, from 2013 to 2020

Demand: candidates' interest in jobs abroad

In the context of applying for job postings abroad, we see an increase in the number of applications from 2013 to 2019, with slight declines in 2017 and 2019 compared to the years preceding them. Such user behavior is in line with the trend of job offers abroad on our website - in both cases there was an increase from 2013 to 2019. It is also important to note that the noticeable decline in the number of applications, which we see for 2020, is probably a consequence of the current pandemic

Graph: number of applications (sum) for ads abroad, by years

Demand: areas of work which the candidates applied for

Most of the applications for foreign job ads were in the field of technical sciences, trade and services, as well as tourism and hospitality, and economy.

Graph: number of applications (sum) for ads abroad (from 2013 to 2020), by categories

Offer: countries with most job opportunities

Based on the graph below, we can conclude which foreign countries provide the majority of job offers.

Graph: number of ads (sum) for positions abroad (from 2013 to 2020), by countries

Demand: which foreign countries candidates apply for the most

Based on the graph below, we can conclude that the largest number of candidates applied for positions in Germany, followed by the countries in our region, as was the case on the graph illustrating the offer.

Graph: number of applications (sum) for positions abroad (from 2013 to 2020), by countries

You can view a detailed exploratory data analysis (EDA) on the external page.

This report presents an analysis of data from the Startuj.infostud.com (Najstudent.com) database, which was linked to certain data collected within the same site through Google Analytics for the purposes of the research. The data on which the exploration data analysis (EDA) was performed was the data on scholarships, advertised on our portal from the beginning of 2013 to the middle of 2020.

Offer: ads for scholarships abroad by year

The largest number of scholarships on the site was announced in 2013 and 2014, as well as in 2019. In 2020, there was a steep fall in the offer of scholarships abroad (2 and a half times fewer scholarships than in 2019), which was expected given the situation related to COVID-19 and all the restrictions related to the issue of staying abroad. Most countries "closed" their borders, making it very difficult to obtain student visas. Furthermore, one of the potential explanations for the decline in the number of ads for foreign scholarships in the period from 2015 to 2018 was the change of the business plan of the Startuj.infostud.com (NajStudent.com) website, which shifted the focus to the domestic market (namely scholarships and internships within the Republic of Serbia) in that period.

Graph: number of ads (sum) for scholarships, by years

Demand: students' interest in scholarships abroad

The trend in the graph below suggests that the most time was spent on foreign scholarship ads during 2014 and 2019, whereas the least time was spent during 2015 and 2018. This result is relatively in accordance with the offer of ads in those years.

Graph: average time (sum) that users spent on a page (in seconds), by years

Over the years, there has been a decline in unique pageviews of advertised scholarships for studying abroad. One of the assumptions explaining such behavior might be that students often turn to official websites of foreign universities in search of further information about scholarships. Throughout the years, students have been directed to the external pages of original ads and application forms more often, outside the Startuj.infostud.com (Najstudent.com) website, to finish the application process and find out more detailed information. Accordingly, the user does not need to visit the site more than once.

Graph: Yearly total unique pageviews (sum)

Top countries offering scholarships for Serbian students

The graph below shows which countries offer scholarships to Serbian students most often. The United Kingdom is in the first place. This is not a surprise, considering that the UK has a lot of funds offering scholarships for non-EU citizens (e.g. The British Scholarship Trust, Chevening Scholarship, Ivan D Jankovic Studentship, etc.). A similar interpretation of the results can be given in the case of the second-ranked country - Germany, which offers well-known funds (e.g. DAAD Scholarship, BAYHOST Scholarship, etc.). Italy ranks third, as one of the countries that provide a lot of scholarships for certain universities, which have been very popular among students from Serbia for years (e.g. Bocconi University, Polytechnic University, etc.).

Graph: total scholarship ads per admission country, from 2013 to 2020

From which fields of study are scholarships for studying abroad the most common?

The largest number of scholarships was offered in the field of social sciences (N = 564). This was followed by natural sciences (N = 345), technical sciences (N = 206), humanities (N = 111), art (N = 84), medical sciences (N = 40), biotechnical sciences (N = 25) and finally sport and physical education (N = 7). The reason for such a result, which implies the greatest demand for social sciences, may be that economics, law, philologies and similar fields of social sciences are some of the most popular among students in Serbia. Accordingly, students from these areas go on to further education and specialization abroad. In the case of second-ranked natural sciences, a large number of students in the field of mathematics have been leaving Serbia and going to Great Britain for further education with the help of prestigious scholarships for years. Furthermore, the global demand for IT candidates, and thus schools in these fields, brought technical sciences to the third place among the most sought-after fields for studying abroad. However, why didn't such a popular discipline end up in the first place? It is assumed that the reason is that there are many high-quality colleges in Serbia, which educate experts in this field, at all three levels of study (BSc, MSc, Ph.D.).

Graph: total scholarship ads per field of study, from 2013 to 2020

Disciplines for scholarships abroad

The highest-ranked discipline was economics, and it is assumed that this was due to MBA programs, which do not exist in our country in the format in which they exist abroad, and they are very popular among our students. MBA programs are most commonly attended in the UK and USA, which further suggests that this is one of the reasons why the UK is also the most popular among the countries that give scholarships to our students. Furthermore, ERASMUS + and similar exchange programs collaborate with UCL and other prestigious UK colleges, which further facilitates obtaining scholarships for this country. Biological sciences were in the second place. Although they are not a popular study programme in our country, they are popular in Germany and the UK. It is assumed that this is exactly the reason why Serbian students want to study in the field of biology in those countries. As expected, IT was positioned in the high third place as an academic discipline, which is not surprising considering that specific IT areas, such as AI, are quite developed abroad, especially in the UK, Germany, Italy, and the USA.

Graph: total scholarship ads per discipline (2013 - 2020)

You can view a detailed exploration data analysis (EDA) on the external page.

Linear regression was used in this research to gain insight into the existence of a certain pattern of user behavior - does a larger number of pageviews of job postings for working abroad necessarily imply a larger number of candidates applying for them? Based on the results of linear regression (height of the coefficient of determination), it can be concluded that this was the case in almost all areas of work and for all years. One of the exceptions was IT, the results of which are shown below.

Graph (scatter plot): display of relationships between variables from linear regression analysis, IT job postings

Graph (scatter plot): display of relationships between variables from modified linear regression analysis (Median / Rounded), IT job postings

Based on the scatter plot (shown left), we can conclude that there is a tendency for a larger number of job posting views (x-axis) to predict a higher number of applicants (y-axis) in the case of ads categorized as IT. However, this relationship (coefficient of determination = 0.08) is not close (the coefficient is low), which indicates that the relation is not clearly defined (a lot of (nonrelated) data points on the scatter plot). Furthermore, based on the graph on the right, we can conclude that in the case of modified regression (median/grouping), this relationship is somewhat stronger (the coefficient of determination is higher), and it is in the same positive direction as with standard linear regression - an increase in the value of one variable suggests an increase in the value of the other. However, this relationship is still weak (the coefficient of determination is low = 0.27).

A detailed overview of all regression analyses by years and areas of work are available here.

Within this section, we have dealt with the content of job postings within different categories (areas of work) in more detail. In the graph below, you can see what the frequency graph of the most frequently mentioned words in IT job postings for positions abroad looks like. Also, in the tables below the graphs, you can see which technologies, countries, and operating systems are most often extracted from the text of our job postings. All this information provides a broader picture of which profile of IT experts is the most sought after among the advertised positions.

Graph: frequent phrases in IT job postings

Technologies	Frequencies
C	31
SAP	27
Java	19
PHP	17
CSS	17
Javascript	17
MySQL	9
Python	9
HTML5	9
NET	8

Cities/Countries	Frequencies
Belgrade	12
Bulgaria	11
Ljubljana	10
Zagreb	9
Austrija	7

OS	Frequencies
iOS	11
Windows	9
Linux	7

A detailed review of the text analysis of job postings from other areas of work is available here.

Analysis of responses from the TK database

The number of candidates who have chosen a foreign country as the place where they would like to continue their lives is decreasing in years. The decline in the desire to work and live abroad was continuously present from 2015 till 2020. It is interesting to see that in 2015 and 2016 the gender structure was noticeably different - the interest of the male population to go abroad was much higher. However, over the years, gender differences significantly decreased, and during 2019 and 2020, there was almost an equal number of men and women interested in the category "abroad". There are a few possible interpretations of these results. One of them is that a great number of people have already left Serbia in the past decades, and the number of those who are still here and have intentions to go abroad is much smaller. Such an interpretation goes in line with the results that we obtained from the analyses of the data about the job and scholarship offers, as well as the results that we received as part of the validation according to the population census data in 2011, which was carried out by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Another, more optimistic interpretation of the results would be that the interest in going abroad has declined, and that people are more likely to continue working and living in Serbia, because they consider the working conditions to be good here.

Graph: expressed interest in going abroad (sum), by years and gender

When we take into consideration the education level, the biggest number of candidates that have opted for working abroad in the internal survey is highly educated (master’s degree). Candidates with secondary school qualification, associate’s or bachelor’s degree come next. These insights are relatively in accordance with the results about the jobs that are most frequently offered by the employers (i.e. engineers, doctors...) - exactly the jobs that require higher levels of education. Furthermore, the result suggesting a high number of candidates that only have secondary school education is also in accordance with the result we obtained from the analysis of the most sought-after job positions. As we saw from the data from the database, there is a great demand for drivers, electricians, construction workers, mechanics and similar positions, i.e. jobs that usually require only secondary education.

Graph: education level of candidates interested in working abroad (sum)

The largest number of candidates that have shown interest in working abroad is between the age of 25 and 40, which represents the working-age population with previous working experience. The results presented in the previous paragraph, which suggest that the biggest number of candidates is with higher level of education (master’s degree) are also in line with this finding. There is almost the same number of those who are younger than 25, and those between 41 and 50, which shows that besides the candidates that already have work experience, both young (i.e. students, pupils) and middle-aged people also want to leave Serbia.

Graph: the age structure of the candidates interested in working abroad (sum)

The largest number of candidates who are interested in working abroad is employed in the field of economics and management, which correlates with the results of the analysis of job ads on the Poslovi.infostud.com and Startuj.infostud.com (Najstudent.com) websites. Furthermore, in the case of both working-age population and the population of students, economics is the category that is most frequent in both job searches and offers. It is followed by mechanical engineering, IT, and electrical engineering (jobs that require specific education) and construction and transport positions (jobs that usually require secondary school level of education).

Graph: areas of work of candidates interested in working abroad (sum)

The largest number of candidates interested in working abroad has more than 10 years of work experience, which completely correlates with all the conclusions of previous analysis.

Graph: work experience of the candidates that want to work abroad (sum)

If you are interested in seeing the whole report on the results of the analysis of the internal TK database of the Poslovi.infostud.com website, you can download it here.

Data from the 2011 census (the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia)

Analyzing the data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, an increase in the number of citizens working (staying) abroad was noted. The exception to this was the 1991 census, when there were 0, 03% fewer people than in the previous census from 1981. The most prominent change took place in 2002, when there was a sharp increase in the number of emigrants from the Republic of Serbia. It is assumed that this sharp increase in the number of emigrants from Serbia, who emigrated before 2002, but were first registered in that census, can be linked to the political turmoil that was present in the Republic of Serbia between 1991 and 1995, as well as in 1999. Having all this in mind, this peak should be taken as an exceptional case.

Graph: the number of people (sum) from Republic of Serbia who work/stay abroad

Which countries are Serbian citizens most likely to stay/work in? According to the 2011 census data, we can draw a conclusion that the most popular countries are Austria, Germany, and Switzerland, after which come Italy, France and the USA. The graph below shows detailed results per country. It is important to notice that the data analysis is only partially in line with the analysis of the data from our database. One of the possible reasons for this could be that our web portal is specialized for job ads from Serbia, so it could be more popular among the employers from the region, which explains why the countries from the region are more highly ranked in our analysis, while in the census from 2011 they are almost at the bottom of the list. Also, there is a number of job offers from abroad that are offered by specialized agencies or in some other ways. All of this had an effect on obtaining different results in our structure of the countries, in comparison with the data from the 2011 census.

Graph: countries that people from the Republic of Serbia most likely go to work/stay (sum)

If you want to see the whole report about the results of data analysis from the census of Republic Institute for Statistics, you can download it here.

Poslovi.infostud.com

Over the years, there has been a continuous growth of published ads for jobs abroad, and the largest number of them was published in 2018 and 2019. In 2020 there was a fall, probably as a consequence of the world facing a global economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The largest number of the analyzed job ads was in the field of mechanical engineering, construction and IT. Electrical engineering, hospitality, food preparation, healthcare and transport also stood out.
Most of the applications for jobs abroad were in the field of technical sciences, trade and services, as well as tourism and hospitality, and economics. When we look at individual positions, there was the greatest demand for drivers and cooks. This was followed by civil engineers, waiters, mechanical engineers, electrical engineers, electricians, doctors and nurses.
The results of the text mining of the IT ads suggest that the following technologies were most often mentioned, listed by number of mentions: C, SAP, JAVA, PHP, CSS and JavaScript. In the field of economics, it is obvious that managerial positions were most often offered, since the following terms were most often mentioned in advertisements for this branch: Project, MS, Management, Business, Communication and Manager. In the category of technical positions, words related to construction (i.e. installation, construction, electronics) or transport were mostly mentioned. In the field of services and production -- operators, hairdressers and drivers were most often sought after, and in tourism -- waiters and cooks.
Candidates' interest in jobs abroad, as measured by the number of applications for advertisements published in foreign countries, grew simultaneously with the number of published advertisements for jobs. This growth was constant since the beginning of the period covered by this research – i.e. since 2013, with slight slowdowns in 2017 and 2019. We recorded a drastic slowdown in 2020, as a consequence of the world facing a global economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since 2013, offers for jobs abroad most often came from Germany, followed by countries from the region – Montenegro, Croatia, and Slovenia (mostly seasonal jobs). If we take into consideration the number of candidate applications, the order is similar, with a slightly lower interest in job offers in Croatia (5th place) and slightly higher for work in Russia (4th place).
In the internal database of the job board Infostud website, it is recorded that the largest number of those who have expressed a desire to go abroad are highly educated (college or master's degree), while people with completed high school are in second place. As for their age, by far the greatest interest is shown by those aged 25 to 40, while the number of those above or below this range is significantly smaller. The people most eager for new opportunities abroad are those with over 10 years of experience, mostly economists and managers, mechanics, electrical technicians and IT experts.

Startuj.infostud.com (NajStudent.com)

With reference to the offers of scholarships, the United Kingdom is in the lead, followed by Germany and Italy. This result is not unexpected when we take into account the fact that the first two countries have several funds and scholarships that allow our students to continue their studies abroad. Also, it is a fact that certain universities in Italy have become well-known places for students from Serbia.
The largest number of scholarships was offered in the field of social sciences (564). This was followed by natural sciences (345), technical sciences (206), humanities (111) and art (84). The result that suggests that social sciences are the most popular field may be due to the fact that economics, law, and similar fields of social sciences, are some of the most popular among students in Serbia.
The highest ranked discipline is economics, and it is assumed that this is due to MBA programs, which do not exist in our country in the format in which they exist abroad. MBA programs are most commonly attended in the UK and USA, which further suggests that this is one of the reasons why the UK is also the most popular among the countries that give scholarships to our students.

A survey was also conducted as part of this project. The aim of the survey was to examine the preferences and attitudes of visitors to our website about continuing life abroad. The total sample in this research consists of 4173 respondents (51% female and 49% male). You can view more in-depth results obtained in this research in the report, which is available in PDF format.

Download full report

For Researchers and Data Scientists who want to supplement our analysis with their own results, we have opened data sets on our GitHub repository. The higher goal is to have the opportunity to reach a more comprehensive understanding of the depopulation process in Serbia, based on data from the Infostud group.

View on Github View the full report

This page has been produced with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) support, within the Depopulation Data Challenge Call. The contents of this page are the sole responsibility of the team InfostudData and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, UNFPA, nor GIZ.